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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 70

Chicago Bears 10 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 16-T.Gill punts 40 yards to BUF 30, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-N.Hines to BUF 33 for 3 yards (47-E.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model