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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Saturday 2022-12-24 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow Spread -8.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

BUF
59.1%
CHI
40.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: +0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.100 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.130 EPA/dropback
  • BUF offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

BUF 23
–
CHI 20
Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

BUF

Carlos Basham DE Out Calf
Mitch Morse C Out Concussion
Ed Oliver DT Questionable Calf
Jordan Phillips DE Questionable Shoulder

CHI

Equanimeous St. Brown WR Out Concussion
Kindle Vildor CB Out Ankle
Trevon Wesco TE Out Calf
Chase Claypool WR Doubtful Knee
Teven Jenkins T Doubtful Neck
Cody Whitehair G Doubtful Knee
Jaylon Johnson CB Questionable Finger

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 35
–
CHI 13

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:46 TD CHI (9:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 18-D.Pettis for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – CHI 6
  • Q1 06:28 TD BUF (6:28) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – CHI 7
  • Q2 03:25 FG CHI (3:25) 2-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. BUF 6 – CHI 10
  • Q3 10:59 TD BUF (10:59) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 12 – CHI 10
  • Q3 08:03 TD BUF (8:03) (Shotgun) 28-J.Cook right tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – CHI 10
  • Q4 10:23 FG CHI (10:23) 2-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. BUF 21 – CHI 13
  • Q4 03:51 TD BUF (3:51) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – CHI 13
  • Q4 01:08 TD BUF (1:08) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 34 – CHI 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 66%

    (2:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 18-D.Pettis (91-E.Oliver).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:07) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to 50, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at BUF 38 for 12 yards (52-A.Klein).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 71%

    (5:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery to BUF 25 for 6 yards (27-T.White).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 91%

    (3:25) 2-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (:56) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:43) 16-T.Gill punts 40 yards to BUF 30, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-N.Hines to BUF 33 for 3 yards (47-E.Lee).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:35) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to CHI 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:52) 16-T.Gill punts 54 yards to BUF 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-N.Hines MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 30. 20-N.Hines to BUF 38 for 8 yards (48-P.Scales; 84-R.Griffin).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 93%

    (13:04) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 84-R.Griffin to BUF 13 for 3 yards (27-T.White). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-J.Fields pass short left to 84-R.Griffin to BUF 14 for 2 yards (27-T.White).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (10:23) 2-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:20) 8-S.Martin punts 62 yards to CHI 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:33) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to BUF 44, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-N.Hines to CHI 40 for 16 yards (35-K.Blasingame). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 46.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 79 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 12-V.Jones (27-T.White) [58-M.Milano].

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 95%

    (1:08) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.