Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 21 – Chicago Bears 10

(4:35) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to CHI 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.08 EP
57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model