Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 87

Chicago Bears 10 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 16-T.Gill punts 54 yards to BUF 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-N.Hines MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 30. 20-N.Hines to BUF 38 for 8 yards (48-P.Scales; 84-R.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.90 EP
58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 87, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model