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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 17

Chicago Bears 10 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 2-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.37 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 17, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model