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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 13

Buffalo Bills 28 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.67 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP