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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 61

New England Patriots 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 15

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 17-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to CIN 24, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP