4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Saturday 2022-12-24 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🥶 Cold Spread -3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CIN
61.2%
NE
38.8%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Mac Jones (NE) -0.038 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.228 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: -0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 24
–
NE 21
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CIN

Sam Hubbard DE Out Calf
Cam Taylor-Britt CB Questionable Shoulder
Jay Tufele DT Questionable Illness
Jalen Davis CB Questionable Thumb
Hayden Hurst TE Questionable Calf

NE

Joe Cardona LS Out Ankle
Jalen Mills CB Out Groin
DeVante Parker WR Out Concussion
Damien Harris RB Questionable Thigh
Jack Jones CB Questionable Knee
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Chest
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Shoulder
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Questionable Ankle
Tyquan Thornton WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 22
–
NE 18

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:31 TD CIN (12:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – NE 0
  • Q1 05:23 TD CIN (5:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 16-T.Irwin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – NE 0
  • Q2 14:54 FG CIN (14:54) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 15 – NE 0
  • Q2 00:19 TD CIN (:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 16-T.Irwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – NE 0
  • Q3 04:05 TD NE (4:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 25-Ma.Jones at NE 31. 25-Ma.Jones for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-9-M.Judon was injured during the play. 6th defensive TD of season for NE, ties franchise record. NE 3rd straight game with a defensive TD, 1st time since 2004. CIN 22 – NE 6
  • Q4 13:06 TD NE (13:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 22 – NE 12
  • Q4 06:13 TD NE (6:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN-92-B.Hill was injured during the play. ball was tipped by NE 88-Washington CIN 22 – NE 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:47) 17-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 41 for 18 yards (8-J.Bentley).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:58) 17-M.Palardy to NE 23 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NE 23. 17-M.Palardy punts 22 yards to CIN 44, out of bounds. PENALTY on NE-48-J.Tavai, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 44.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (14:54) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (11:58) 17-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to CIN 24, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 33%

    (9:07) 74-M.Scharping reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow right end to NE 49 for 1 yard (8-J.Bentley).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:23) 17-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:22) 17-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 19 for 10 yards (3-J.Peppers).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 38%

    (9:14) 4-D.Chrisman punts 36 yards to NE 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:12) 17-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to CIN 38, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 45 for 7 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:02) 4-D.Chrisman punts 43 yards to NE 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 23 for 11 yards (48-C.Adomitis).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 87%

    (9:10) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:48) 4-D.Chrisman punts 48 yards to NE 27, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 25-Ma.Jones MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NE 24.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 27%

    (:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Thornton (29-C.Taylor-Britt). Penalty on NE-60-D.Andrews, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.