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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 15 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 74-M.Scharping reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow right end to NE 49 for 1 yard (8-J.Bentley).

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.48 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model