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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 4-D.Chrisman punts 43 yards to NE 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 23 for 11 yards (48-C.Adomitis).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP