Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 66

New England Patriots 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 17-M.Palardy to NE 23 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NE 23. 17-M.Palardy punts 22 yards to CIN 44, out of bounds. PENALTY on NE-48-J.Tavai, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 44.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model