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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 68

Detroit Lions 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to CAR 15, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-S.Smith pushed ob at CAR 28 for 13 yards (51-J.Woods). PENALTY on CAR-42-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at CAR 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model