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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Steve Wilks
Saturday 2022-12-24 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🥶 Cold Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DET
63.8%
CAR
36.2%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Sam Darnold (CAR) -0.224 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.179 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: +0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
CAR 18
Projected margin: DET by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DET

Kayode Awosika G Out Ankle
Jason Cabinda FB Out Illness
DeShon Elliott CB Out Shoulder
Derrick Barnes LB Questionable Knee
Frank Ragnow C Questionable Foot

CAR

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 23
–
CAR 37

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:02 TD CAR (12:02) (Shotgun) 20-R.Blackshear right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 08:43 TD DET (8:43) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 84-S.Zylstra for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CAR 7
  • Q2 09:40 TD CAR (9:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – CAR 13
  • Q2 02:12 TD CAR (2:12) 33-D.Foreman up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – CAR 20
  • Q2 00:02 FG CAR (:02) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. DET 7 – CAR 24
  • Q3 09:19 TD CAR (9:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – CAR 30
  • Q3 03:16 TD DET (3:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 84-S.Zylstra for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – CAR 31
  • Q4 13:17 FG CAR (13:17) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. DET 13 – CAR 34
  • Q4 03:50 TD DET (3:50) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short left to 84-S.Zylstra for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – CAR 34
  • Q4 02:00 FG CAR (2:00) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. DET 20 – CAR 37
  • Q4 00:40 FG DET (:40) 17-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 23 – CAR 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 25%

    (6:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to DET 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 88%

    (:54) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams left guard to CAR 20 for 2 yards (55-C.Littleton, 93-B.Roy).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:45) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to CAR 15, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-S.Smith pushed ob at CAR 28 for 13 yards (51-J.Woods). PENALTY on CAR-42-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at CAR 15.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 83%

    (5:08) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold up the middle to DET 23 for 3 yards (44-M.Rodriguez).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:09) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to CAR 14, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-S.Smith to CAR 14 for no gain (51-J.Woods).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:55) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to CAR 29, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-S.Smith MUFFS catch, recovered by CAR-24-C.Henderson at CAR 26. CAR-12-S.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 19 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:16) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to CAR 34, Center-47-S.Daly. 20-R.Blackshear to CAR 45 for 11 yards (51-J.Woods).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 21%

    (6:30) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (3:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 84-S.Zylstra for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%

    (13:17) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (10:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 8-J.Reynolds (25-X.Woods). Penalty on DET-8-J.Reynolds, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 58%

    (5:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 24 yards to DET 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (2:00) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (:40) 17-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.