Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 88

Detroit Lions 7 – Carolina Panthers 31

(8:16) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to CAR 34, Center-47-S.Daly. 20-R.Blackshear to CAR 45 for 11 yards (51-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model