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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 31 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model