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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 22

Carolina Panthers 31 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.00 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model