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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 7

Detroit Lions 13 – Carolina Panthers 34

What Actually Happened

(10:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 8-J.Reynolds (25-X.Woods). Penalty on DET-8-J.Reynolds, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model