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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 34 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 24 yards to DET 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP