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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 12-T.Brady up the middle to ARI 16 for 2 yards (98-T.Hill). ARI-98-T.Hill was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.68 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model