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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2022-12-25 · 20:20 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

TB
58.8%
ARI
41.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Trace McSorley (ARI): -0.436 EPA/dropback in prior starts (ARI starting Trace McSorley in place of Colt McCoy)
  • TB offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
ARI 19
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

TB

Genard Avery LB Out Abdomen
Jamel Dean CB Out Toe
Carl Nassib LB Out Pectoral
Donovan Smith T Out Foot
Vita Vea DT Out Calf
Antoine Winfield S Questionable Ankle
Josh Wells T Questionable Back
Tristan Wirfs T Questionable Ankle
Mike Edwards S Questionable Hamstring
Julio Jones WR Questionable Knee
Keanu Neal S Questionable Toe

ARI

Zach Allen DE Out Hand
Byron Murphy CB Out Back
Colt McCoy QB Out Concussion
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Knee
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Groin
Max Garcia G Questionable Shoulder
Antonio Hamilton CB Questionable Back
Charles Washington S Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 19
–
ARI 16

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:27 FG TB (13:27) 3-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – ARI 0
  • Q1 00:37 FG ARI (:37) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. TB 3 – ARI 3
  • Q2 08:18 FG TB (8:18) 3-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 6 – ARI 3
  • Q2 00:12 FG ARI (:12) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. TB 6 – ARI 6
  • Q4 14:11 FG ARI (14:11) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. TB 6 – ARI 9
  • Q4 10:53 TD ARI (10:53) 6-J.Conner left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – ARI 15
  • Q4 08:07 TD TB (8:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 29-R.White for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – ARI 16
  • Q4 02:31 FG TB (2:31) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 16 – ARI 16
  • Q5 03:46 FG TB (3:46) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 19 – ARI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 92%

    (13:27) 3-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:45) (Punt formation) 14-A.Lee pass short right to 57-K.Grugier-Hill to ARI 49 for 4 yards (30-D.Delaney).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 37%

    (5:44) 7-L.Fournette right tackle to ARI 49 for -1 yards (51-T.Vallejo, 44-M.Golden).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 35%

    (4:06) 14-A.Lee punts 39 yards to TB 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:58) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to ARI 30, Center-97-Z.Triner. 15-P.Cooper to ARI 39 for 9 yards (88-C.Otton).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 63%

    (:37) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 93%

    (10:53) 12-T.Brady up the middle to ARI 16 for 2 yards (98-T.Hill). ARI-98-T.Hill was injured during the play.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (8:18) 3-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:22) 14-A.Lee punts 39 yards to TB 48, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (3:09) 14-A.Lee punts 38 yards to TB 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to ARI 17, Center-97-Z.Triner. 15-P.Cooper ran ob at ARI 30 for 13 yards (25-G.Bernard).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 70%

    (:12) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:17) 14-A.Lee punts 58 yards to TB 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-27-N.Hairston.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (11:45) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to ARI 31, Center-97-Z.Triner. 15-P.Cooper to ARI 33 for 2 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Penalty on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on ARI-51-T.Vallejo, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 33.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:46) 14-A.Lee punts 45 yards to TB 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (14:11) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (12:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to ARI 39, Center-97-Z.Triner. 15-P.Cooper pushed ob at TB 33 for 28 yards (25-G.Bernard).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (2:31) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:50) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to TB 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 34 for 14 yards (47-E.Turner; 31-C.Banjo).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (:56) 5-J.Camarda punts 57 yards to ARI 1, Center-97-Z.Triner. 15-P.Cooper to ARI 20 for 19 yards (41-K.Kieft, 52-K.Britt).