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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 87

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 14-A.Lee punts 39 yards to TB 48, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.20 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model