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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 14-A.Lee punts 38 yards to TB 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model