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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(:12) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.58 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model