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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 14-A.Lee punts 58 yards to TB 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-27-N.Hairston.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP