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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 83

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to ARI 31, Center-97-Z.Triner. 15-P.Cooper to ARI 33 for 2 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Penalty on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on ARI-51-T.Vallejo, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.60 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 83, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 41, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP