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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to TB 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 34 for 14 yards (47-E.Turner; 31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.07 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model