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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(:56) 5-J.Camarda punts 57 yards to ARI 1, Center-97-Z.Triner. 15-P.Cooper to ARI 20 for 19 yards (41-K.Kieft, 52-K.Britt).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.62 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -1.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model