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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 7-L.Fournette right tackle to ARI 49 for -1 yards (51-T.Vallejo, 44-M.Golden).

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.59 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model