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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 49

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 14-A.Lee punts 39 yards to TB 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.16 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model