Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(1:58) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to ARI 30, Center-97-Z.Triner. 15-P.Cooper to ARI 39 for 9 yards (88-C.Otton).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model