Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Washington Commanders 7

(7:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to WAS 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.04 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model