4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Saturday 2022-12-24 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

WAS
24.7%
SF
75.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.181 vs Taylor Heinicke (WAS) -0.201 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: +0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SF on 3 more days rest than WAS

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
SF 28
Projected margin: SF by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

WAS

Saahdiq Charles T Out Concussion
Kamren Curl S Questionable Ankle
Benjamin St-Juste CB Questionable Ankle

SF

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Foot
Kevin Givens DT Out Knee
Deebo Samuel WR Out Ankle
Tarvarius Moore S Questionable Illness
Kerry Hyder DE Questionable Ankle
Jordan Mason RB Questionable Hamstring
Ambry Thomas CB Questionable Ankle
Charvarius Ward CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 20
–
SF 37

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 06:37 TD SF (6:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.McCloud right end for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 00:27 TD WAS (:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – SF 7
  • Q3 10:44 TD SF (10:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – SF 13
  • Q3 05:02 TD SF (5:02) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 27 YAC WAS 7 – SF 20
  • Q3 02:53 TD WAS (2:53) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-29-T.Hufanga, Illegal Contact, declined. WAS 13 – SF 21
  • Q4 15:00 FG SF (15:00) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. WAS 14 – SF 24
  • Q4 12:05 FG SF (12:05) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. WAS 14 – SF 27
  • Q4 09:20 FG SF (9:20) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. WAS 14 – SF 30
  • Q4 05:30 TD WAS (5:30) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 10-C.Samuel for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 5 YAC WAS 20 – SF 30
  • Q4 02:16 TD SF (2:16) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – SF 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:34) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to SF 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 3-R.McCloud ran ob at SF 35 for 13 yards (41-J.Williams).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (8:47) 23-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at WAS 15 for no gain (51-D.Mayo).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 13 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:01) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to SF 36, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 3-R.McCloud to SF 35 for -1 yards (35-P.Butler). PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 28%

    (5:30) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-T.Pepper. 15-D.Milne to WAS 15 for 4 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles, 81-T.Kroft).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (9:37) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson right guard to SF 1 for no gain (54-F.Warner).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 33%

    (3:10) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to SF 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:10) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to SF 43, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-34-C.Holmes.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 17 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to WAS 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:46) 4-T.Heinicke up the middle to WAS 34 for no gain (97-N.Bosa; 54-F.Warner).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (12:05) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 94%

    (9:20) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 97%

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to WAS 1 for 10 yards (39-J.Reaves). 0 YAC