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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 66

Washington Commanders 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 4-T.Heinicke up the middle to WAS 34 for no gain (97-N.Bosa; 54-F.Warner).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model