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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 5

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 5, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP