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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 30 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to WAS 1 for 10 yards (39-J.Reaves). 0 YAC

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.69 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model