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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-T.Pepper. 15-D.Milne to WAS 15 for 4 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles, 81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.40 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model