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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 14-A.Lee punts 34 yards to ATL 11, Center-48-H.Bradley, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.33 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model