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ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

ARI
35.2%
ATL
64.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Desmond Ridder (ATL) -0.029 vs David Blough (ARI) -0.193 EPA/dropback (ARI starting David Blough in place of Trace McSorley)
  • ATL defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ARI 20
–
ATL 24
Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

ARI

Zach Allen DE Out Hand
Antonio Hamilton CB Out Hip
Colt McCoy QB Out Concussion
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Knee
Marco Wilson CB Questionable Neck
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Knee
Tanner Vallejo LB Questionable Knee

ATL

Chuma Edoga G Out Knee
Feleipe Franks TE Out Concussion
Jovante Moffatt S Out Calf
Elijah Wilkinson G Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 19
–
ATL 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:28 FG ARI (8:28) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 3 – ATL 0
  • Q2 13:41 TD ATL (13:41) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – ATL 6
  • Q2 10:06 TD ARI (10:06) (No Huddle) 17-D.Blough pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – ATL 7
  • Q2 01:51 TD ATL (1:51) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – ATL 13
  • Q2 00:06 FG ARI (:06) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 13 – ATL 14
  • Q3 09:04 FG ARI (9:04) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 16 – ATL 14
  • Q4 09:40 FG ATL (9:40) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ARI 16 – ATL 17
  • Q4 05:02 FG ARI (5:02) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 19 – ATL 17
  • Q4 00:02 FG ATL (:02) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ARI 19 – ATL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (8:28) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 93%

    (14:21) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle to ARI 5 for 14 yards (34-J.Thompson).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 47%

    (10:53) 14-A.Lee punts 34 yards to ATL 11, Center-48-H.Bradley, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:00) 14-A.Lee punt is BLOCKED by 27-R.Grant, Center-48-H.Bradley, ball out of bounds at ARI 5.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 62 yards to ARI 1, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (9:04) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to ARI 19, Center-48-L.McCullough. 15-P.Cooper to ARI 33 for 14 yards (44-T.Andersen; 40-K.Smith). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 33.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 87%

    (4:06) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:02) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 15-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 50%

    (13:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-C.Clement left guard to ATL 44 for no gain (26-I.Oliver; 97-G.Jarrett).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (9:40) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 17 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 62%

    (5:02) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.