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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 2 at the 9
Atlanta Falcons 7 – Arizona Cardinals 10
What Actually Happened
(2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London.
The Three Options
GO
+2.90 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.54 EP
- 46% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.22 EP
KICK
+1.93 EP
- 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT
-0.27 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
