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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 14-A.Lee punt is BLOCKED by 27-R.Grant, Center-48-H.Bradley, ball out of bounds at ARI 5.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.78 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 86, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model