Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Arizona Cardinals 13

(12:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 62 yards to ARI 1, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.97 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model