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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.97 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model