4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 9

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.82 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP