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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to WAS 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-37-D.Bell.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model