Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- WAS defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- QB edge to WAS: Carson Wentz (WAS) -0.109 vs Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.215 EPA/dropback (WAS starting Carson Wentz in place of Taylor Heinicke)
- WAS offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
CLE
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:26 FG CLE (9:26) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – WAS 0
- Q2 00:23 TD WAS (:23) 11-C.Wentz up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – WAS 6
- Q3 10:12 TD CLE (10:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – WAS 7
- Q3 00:43 TD CLE (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – WAS 7
- Q4 10:29 FG WAS (10:29) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. CLE 17 – WAS 10
- Q4 05:29 TD CLE (5:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-M.Sweat]. CLE 23 – WAS 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%
(9:26) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 53%
(3:56) 41-J.Williams left end to CLE 41 for -1 yards (90-J.Clowney, 95-M.Garrett).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right guard to WAS 2 for 1 yard (94-D.Payne, 22-D.Forrest).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 25%
(11:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to WAS 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-37-D.Bell.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(:23) 11-C.Wentz up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 12 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:03) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 16-J.Darden to CLE 37 for 10 yards (46-M.Eifler; 58-S.Toney).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(7:03) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to CLE 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 85%
(10:29) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 39%
(7:31) 7-J.Brissett right guard to WAS 43 for 2 yards (51-D.Mayo).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 56 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(3:45) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 89-C.Sims to CLE 40 for 16 yards (37-D.Bell).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 81 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:54) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to WAS 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 64 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(2:08) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin (23-M.Emerson).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 36 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.54 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 63%
(:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to WAS 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-47-C.Hughlett.