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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 75

Washington Commanders 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 16-J.Darden to CLE 37 for 10 yards (46-M.Eifler; 58-S.Toney).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.19 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model