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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 25

Washington Commanders 7 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.75 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model