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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 30

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model