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Denver Broncos

HC Jay Rosburg
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KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 13:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

DEN
20.6%
KC
79.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.274 vs Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.149 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 19
–
KC 28
Projected margin: KC by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DEN

Calvin Anderson T Out Ankle
Greg Dulcich TE Out Hamstring
Randy Gregory LB Out Knee
Baron Browning LB Questionable Back
Kendall Hinton WR Questionable Hamstring
Jerry Jeudy WR Questionable Ankle
D.J. Jones DT Questionable Knee

KC

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 24
–
KC 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:42 TD KC (7:42) 10-I.Pacheco right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 10:51 FG DEN (10:51) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 3 – KC 6
  • Q2 04:45 TD DEN (4:45) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – KC 6
  • Q2 01:08 TD KC (1:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – KC 12
  • Q3 06:41 TD DEN (6:41) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 85-A.Okwuegbunam for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – KC 13
  • Q4 15:00 TD KC (15:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 81-B.Bell for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – KC 19
  • Q4 12:40 TD KC (12:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – KC 26
  • Q4 06:21 TD DEN (6:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – KC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:23) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to KC 35, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-K.Toney.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 48%

    (9:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 34 for 10 yards (47-J.Jewell).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:31) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to KC 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-K.Toney.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to DEN 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 9-K.Hinton to DEN 21 for 11 yards (54-L.Chenal).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 45%

    (13:09) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to KC 43 for 2 yards (95-C.Jones).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 80%

    (10:51) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:59) 17-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to KC 6, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-K.Toney to KC 13 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton). FUMBLES (49-A.Singleton), RECOVERED by DEN-82-E.Saubert at KC 16.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:09) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to DEN 24, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 9-K.Hinton.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:27) 17-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:33) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to DEN 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 9-K.Hinton to DEN 37 for 9 yards (54-L.Chenal; 45-M.Burton).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to DEN 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 9-K.Hinton.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:05) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to KC 28, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-K.Toney pushed ob at KC 35 for 7 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:03) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 9-K.Hinton to DEN 26 for 17 yards (13-N.Johnson). DEN-6-P.Locke was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 36 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).