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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 78

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to KC 35, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-K.Toney.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.72 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 35, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model